Kyoto Sangavs
Kashiwa Reysol
COMPLETEDJapan · J1 League · 9/11/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kashiwa Reysol · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kyoto Sanga 2-3 Kashiwa Reysol
Original prediction
Kashiwa Reysol
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.30 | 21.9% | 26.0% | 4.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.74 | 25.1% | 24.6% | -0.5 pts |
| Away | 1.77 | 53.0% | 49.4% | -3.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.77 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Kashiwa Reysol
Probability
49.4%
Model confidence
49.4%
Kashiwa Reysol has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40