Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Strogino · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kvant 1-3 Strogino
Original prediction
Strogino
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 17 September 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.96 | 18.5% | 23.3% | 4.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.85 | 23.8% | 22.0% | -1.8 pts |
| Away | 1.58 | 57.8% | 54.8% | -3.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.58 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Strogino
Probability
54.8%
Model confidence
54.8%
Strogino has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
KvantLDLDL
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
StroginoLLLLW
GF 6 · GA 13 · avg 1.20/2.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
KvantStrogino
32.1Attack39.5
7.4Defence39.5
9.9Form34.6
20.9Power39.6
1.18xG1.83