KV Mechelenvs
St. Truiden
COMPLETEDBelgium · Jupiler Pro League · 10/11/2026, 5:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
St. Truiden · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
KV Mechelen 4-3 St. Truiden
Original prediction
St. Truiden
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 11 September 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.01 | 31.0% | 25.3% | -5.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.50 | 26.7% | 23.7% | -3.0 pts |
| Away | 2.20 | 42.4% | 51.0% | 8.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–29%
Predicted outcome
St. Truiden
Probability
51.0%
Model confidence
51.0%
St. Truiden has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60