KV Mechelenvs
Karpaty
COMPLETEDWorld · Friendlies Clubs · 10/3/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
KV Mechelen · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
KV Mechelen 2-3 Karpaty
Original prediction
KV Mechelen
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 September 2026 at 09:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.06 | 44.2% | 37.9% | -6.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.73 | 24.4% | 27.6% | 3.2 pts |
| Away | 2.89 | 31.4% | 34.5% | 3.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
KV Mechelen
Probability
37.9%
Model confidence
37.9%
KV Mechelen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 9 · avg 0.40/1.80
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20