Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Iraq · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (12%), 0-2 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kuwait 2-3 Iraq
Original prediction
Iraq
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.44 | 14.1% | 22.0% | 7.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.69 | 24.6% | 26.1% | 1.5 pts |
| Away | 1.48 | 61.3% | 51.9% | -9.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.48 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–211%
Predicted outcome
Iraq
Probability
51.9%
Model confidence
51.9%
Iraq has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
KuwaitLDDWL
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
IraqDLDWL
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
KuwaitIraq
22.2Attack80.0
66.7Defence80.0
44.4Form86.7
47.5Power81.2
0.89xG1.66