Kustosijavs
Croatia Zmijavci
COMPLETEDCroatia · First NL · 9/20/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 0-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kustosija 1-0 Croatia Zmijavci
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:27 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.34 | 38.5% | 34.9% | -3.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.06 | 29.5% | 29.9% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 2.81 | 32.0% | 35.2% | 3.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.0–112%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
29.9%
Model confidence
35.2%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
KustosijaLDLDL
GF 2 · GA 5 · avg 0.40/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Croatia ZmijavciLDWWW
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
KustosijaCroatia Zmijavci
0.0Attack33.3
100.0Defence100.0
33.3Form100.0
45.3Power80.3
1.02xG1.10