Meistriliiga
Kuressaare
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Kalju Nomme
AwayThe model projects 1.34 xG for Kuressaare and 1.35 xG for Kalju Nomme. Kuressaare's projected xG of 1.34 is not sufficient to make scoring a reliable expectation — the model does not see them generating enough high-quality chances to break through.The projected 0-1 scoreline features a clean sheet for one side. With only 1 goal expected in total, the match is projected to be a tight, low-scoring affair where one goal may be enough to decide the contest.Kalju Nomme's Defensive Stability Score (66) comfortably exceeds the opposition's Attack Score (34). That structural defensive advantage is the clearest reason the model does not project both teams scoring.
The model projects a combined xG of 2.69 — elevated attacking volume. A combined xG below 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is unlikely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture falls below that threshold.The projected 0-1 scoreline stays under the 2.5-goal mark. Only 1 goal is expected in the most likely outcome — the model sees this as a tight, low-scoring contest where one goal could be decisive.
Momentum trend
last 5 matchesKuressaareKalju NommeProbability breakdown
Kuressaare leads with 39% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.
Kalju Nomme Backed to Win — Model Projects 0-1
Kuressaare take on Kalju Nomme in Meistriliiga.
Key factors
Why GoalVio backs this
Kalju Nomme hold a slim but consistent edge across the key input metrics. No single factor clears the threshold required to claim a material advantage, but chance quality, defensive organisation, and recent form all point in the same direction — and when multiple independent signals align, that convergence is the model's case for Kalju Nomme.
Biggest risk: The xG gap between these sides is narrow — a small swing in form, a set-piece goal, or a tactical adjustment could flip the result. The model favours Kalju Nomme, but this is not a fixture where the outcome is a foregone conclusion. If Kuressaare score first, the game becomes genuinely open.
Risk factors
- ⚠The xG gap is narrow at 0.01 — a small swing in form or tactics could flip the result.
- ⚠Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.
- ⚠The Poisson model works on averages — individual moments of quality can decide matches that data suggests should be close.
Head to head
Recent form
Kuressaare
Kalju Nomme
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Kuressaare vs Kalju Nomme?
GoalVio's model predicts a draw with 39% confidence.
What is the predicted score for Kuressaare vs Kalju Nomme?
A predicted scoreline has not yet been generated for this fixture.
Will both teams score in Kuressaare vs Kalju Nomme?
GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Kuressaare vs Kalju Nomme?
GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.