Meistriliiga
Kuressaare
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Flora Tallinn
AwayThe model projects 1.50 xG for Kuressaare and 1.37 xG for Flora Tallinn. Flora Tallinn's projected xG of 1.37 is not sufficient to make scoring a reliable expectation — the model does not see them generating enough high-quality chances to break through.The projected 1-0 scoreline features a clean sheet for one side. With only 1 goal expected in total, the match is projected to be a tight, low-scoring affair where one goal may be enough to decide the contest.
The model projects a combined xG of 2.86 — elevated attacking volume. A combined xG below 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is unlikely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture falls below that threshold.The projected 1-0 scoreline stays under the 2.5-goal mark. Only 1 goal is expected in the most likely outcome — the model sees this as a tight, low-scoring contest where one goal could be decisive.
Momentum trend
last 5 matchesKuressaareFlora TallinnProbability breakdown
Flora Tallinn leads with 55% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.
Flora Tallinn Backed to Win — Model Projects 1-2
Kuressaare take on Flora Tallinn in Meistriliiga.
Key factors
Why GoalVio backs this
Kuressaare hold a slim but consistent edge across the key input metrics. No single factor clears the threshold required to claim a material advantage, but chance quality, defensive organisation, and recent form all point in the same direction — and when multiple independent signals align, that convergence is the model's case for Kuressaare.
Biggest risk: The xG gap between these sides is narrow — a small swing in form, a set-piece goal, or a tactical adjustment could flip the result. The model favours Kuressaare, but this is not a fixture where the outcome is a foregone conclusion. If Flora Tallinn score first, the game becomes genuinely open.
Risk factors
- ⚠Flora Tallinn are in decent form with 3 wins from their last 10 matches — an upset cannot be ruled out.
- ⚠The head-to-head record is competitive — the underdog has won 9 of the last 10 meetings.
- ⚠The xG gap is narrow at 0.13 — a small swing in form or tactics could flip the result.
Head to head
Recent form
Kuressaare
Flora Tallinn
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Kuressaare vs Flora Tallinn?
GoalVio's model predicts Flora Tallinn to win with 55% confidence.
What is the predicted score for Kuressaare vs Flora Tallinn?
The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-2.
Will both teams score in Kuressaare vs Flora Tallinn?
GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Kuressaare vs Flora Tallinn?
GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.