Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
KuPS W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 3-1
KuPS W are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LWLLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.40 conceded, while Ilves are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWDWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and KuPS W hold an 11.6-point power-rating edge (60.9 v 49.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 61.4% in the Kansallinen Liiga, while KuPS W holds the strongest overall chance at 61% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 79% BTTS chance and 85% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
KuPS W
Probability
61.4%
Model confidence
61.4%
KuPS W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00