Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
KuPS W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 3-1
KuPS W are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWWLW), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Ilves W are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LLWWW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and KuPS W hold an 11.6-point power-rating edge (60.9 v 49.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 7.7% in the Kansallinen Liiga, while KuPS W holds the strongest overall chance at 63% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 79% BTTS chance and 85% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
KuPS W
Probability
63.1%
Model confidence
7.7%
KuPS W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00