Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Rīgas FS · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
KuPS are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWWLW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Rīgas FS are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLWLW), averaging 2.80 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Rīgas FS hold a 10.6-point power-rating edge (36.5 v 47.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 37.0% in the UEFA Europa League, while Rīgas FS holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 55% BTTS chance and 49% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Rīgas FS
Probability
37.0%
Model confidence
37.0%
Rīgas FS has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
GF 14 · GA 8 · avg 2.80/1.60