Kun Khalifat FCvs
Kwara United
COMPLETEDNigeria · NPFL · 9/27/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kwara United · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (14%), 1-1 (13%), 0-2 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kun Khalifat FC 1-0 Kwara United
Original prediction
Kwara United
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 04:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.74 | 51.9% | 29.9% | -22.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.07 | 29.4% | 27.2% | -2.2 pts |
| Away | 4.82 | 18.7% | 42.9% | 24.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
24.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–114%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.0–212%
Predicted outcome
Kwara United
Probability
42.9%
Model confidence
42.9%
Kwara United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 13 · avg 0.80/2.60
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00