Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lidköping · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kumla 1-0 Lidköping
Original prediction
Lidköping
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 05:19 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.25 | 40.1% | 35.7% | -4.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.35 | 27.1% | 27.7% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 2.75 | 32.8% | 36.6% | 3.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Lidköping
Probability
36.6%
Model confidence
36.6%
Lidköping has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
KumlaLDDLL
GF 4 · GA 15 · avg 0.80/3.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
LidköpingWWWDD
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
KumlaLidköping
31.8Attack42.4
40.9Defence37.9
33.3Form36.4
37.5Power41.0
1.27xG1.40