Krylia Sovetovvs
Fakel
COMPLETEDRussia · Premier League · 10/17/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Krylia Sovetov · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (14%), 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Krylia Sovetov 1-2 Fakel
Original prediction
Krylia Sovetov
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:36 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.00 | 47.4% | 63.5% | 16.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.44 | 27.6% | 21.4% | -6.2 pts |
| Away | 3.79 | 25.0% | 15.0% | -10.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
16.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–014%
- 2.1–014%
- 3.1–111%
Predicted outcome
Krylia Sovetov
Probability
63.5%
Model confidence
63.5%
Krylia Sovetov has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60