Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Triglav · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Krško 0-2 Triglav
Original prediction
Triglav
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 19:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.58 | 13.7% | 31.0% | 17.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.30 | 21.0% | 26.4% | 5.4 pts |
| Away | 1.38 | 65.3% | 42.6% | -22.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.38 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-22.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Triglav
Probability
42.6%
Model confidence
42.6%
Triglav has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
KrškoDWLLL
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
TriglavWDWWL
GF 12 · GA 3 · avg 2.40/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
KrškoTriglav
66.7Attack100.0
66.7Defence100.0
100.0Form100.0
80.3Power97.0
1.52xG1.45