Kristianstadvs
AFC Malmo
COMPLETEDSweden · Ettan - Södra · 10/2/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AFC Malmo · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kristianstad 0-1 AFC Malmo
Original prediction
AFC Malmo
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 05:15 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.07 | 29.5% | 34.6% | 5.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.54 | 25.5% | 28.1% | 2.6 pts |
| Away | 2.01 | 45.0% | 37.3% | -7.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.01 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–09%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
AFC Malmo
Probability
37.3%
Model confidence
37.3%
AFC Malmo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20