Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Križevci · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Križevci 1-1 Lucko
Original prediction
Križevci
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 19 September 2026 at 09:35 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.70 | 53.3% | 42.4% | -10.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.68 | 24.6% | 25.4% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 4.10 | 22.1% | 32.2% | 10.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.68 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–09%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Križevci
Probability
42.4%
Model confidence
42.4%
Križevci has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
KriževciLLWDW
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
LuckoWLLLD
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
KriževciLucko
45.8Attack37.5
41.7Defence58.3
41.7Form33.3
43.9Power43.9
1.31xG1.24