Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
VPS II · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-4 (7%), 4-4 (6%), 3-5 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kraft 7-0 VPS II
Original prediction
VPS II
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.44 | 36.7% | 35.0% | -1.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.17 | 21.5% | 18.6% | -2.9 pts |
| Away | 2.14 | 41.8% | 46.4% | 4.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–47%
- 2.4–46%
- 3.3–56%
Predicted outcome
VPS II
Probability
46.4%
Model confidence
46.4%
VPS II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
KraftLLWLL
GF 3 · GA 19 · avg 0.60/3.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 5/5
VPS IILWWLL
GF 12 · GA 16 · avg 2.40/3.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
KraftVPS II
78.8Attack87.9
7.6Defence27.3
39.4Form47.0
41.2Power52.8
3.78xG4.50