Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kraft · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 4-3 (7%), 4-2 (6%), 5-3 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kraft 2-1 Jaro 2
Original prediction
Kraft
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.57 | 57.6% | 56.7% | -0.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.87 | 18.6% | 16.8% | -1.9 pts |
| Away | 3.83 | 23.7% | 26.5% | 2.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.57 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.4–37%
- 2.4–26%
- 3.5–36%
Predicted outcome
Kraft
Probability
56.7%
Model confidence
56.7%
Kraft has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
KraftLLDLW
GF 7 · GA 14 · avg 1.40/2.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
Jaro 2DLLLL
GF 6 · GA 19 · avg 1.20/3.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
KraftJaro 2
87.7Attack61.4
12.3Defence1.8
40.4Form45.6
45.4Power38.2
4.50xG3.08