Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Stabæk II · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-4 (7%), 1-3 (7%), 2-4 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Åkra 5-3 Stabæk II
Original prediction
Stabæk II
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 September 2026 at 09:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.15 | 14.7% | 15.0% | 0.4 pts |
| Draw | 5.17 | 17.5% | 13.9% | -3.6 pts |
| Away | 1.33 | 67.8% | 71.0% | 3.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–47%
- 2.1–37%
- 3.2–47%
Predicted outcome
Stabæk II
Probability
71.0%
Model confidence
71.0%
Stabæk II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ÅkraLLLDL
GF 3 · GA 16 · avg 0.60/3.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
Stabæk IIWWLDW
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
ÅkraStabæk II
40.9Attack69.6
0.0Defence29.0
22.7Form47.8
25.1Power49.4
1.87xG4.13