Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
TPV · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-2
KPV-j are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLLLW), averaging 1.80 scored and 2.40 conceded, while TPV are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (WLDDL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and TPV hold a 20.7-point power-rating edge (20.7 v 41.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 9.6% in the Ykkönen, while TPV holds the strongest overall chance at 62% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 67% BTTS chance and 72% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
TPV
Probability
61.9%
Model confidence
9.6%
TPV has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 12 · avg 1.80/2.40
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60