Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
KPV-j · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
KPV-j are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (LWWWW), averaging 2.00 scored and 0.80 conceded, while KäPa are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWLDW), averaging 2.60 scored and 3.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and KäPa hold a 7.1-point power-rating edge (31.3 v 38.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 48.1% in the Ykkösliiga, while KPV-j holds the strongest overall chance at 48% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 51% BTTS chance and 48% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
KPV-j
Probability
48.1%
Model confidence
48.1%
KPV-j has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
GF 13 · GA 16 · avg 2.60/3.20