Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
KäPa · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
KäPa 1-1 Rops
Original prediction
KäPa
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 October 2026 at 07:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.80 | 49.8% | 36.5% | -13.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.40 | 26.4% | 28.4% | 2.1 pts |
| Away | 3.75 | 23.9% | 35.0% | 11.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.40 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
KäPa
Probability
36.5%
Model confidence
36.5%
KäPa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
KäPaDLDWW
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80
BTTS 5/5O2.5 3/5
RopsDDWWL
GF 12 · GA 7 · avg 2.40/1.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 3/5
KäPaRops
40.5Attack33.3
40.5Defence66.7
31.0Form33.3
40.1Power45.3
1.25xG1.61