Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
MP · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
KäPa are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LWDLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded, while MP are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (LDWDD), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and MP hold a 13.9-point power-rating edge (41.9 v 55.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 45.6% in the Ykkönen, while MP holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 64% BTTS chance and 62% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
MP
Probability
45.6%
Model confidence
45.6%
MP has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20