Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
KäPa · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
KäPa 1-1 MP
Original prediction
KäPa
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 18:38 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.21 | 41.0% | 37.2% | -3.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.64 | 24.9% | 26.8% | 1.9 pts |
| Away | 2.66 | 34.0% | 36.0% | 2.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.64 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
KäPa
Probability
37.2%
Model confidence
37.2%
KäPa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
KäPaWWLDD
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
MPDWDWL
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
KäPaMP
40.0Attack36.0
40.0Defence53.3
32.0Form38.7
40.1Power45.2
1.19xG1.21