Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
KäPa are 0W-0D-5L in their last 5 (LLLLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 2.00 conceded, while MP are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLWDL), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and MP hold a 7.4-point power-rating edge (38.4 v 45.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 36.5% in the Ykkösliiga, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 43% BTTS chance and 35% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
36.5%
Model confidence
36.5%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00