Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
KäPa are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LWLLL), averaging 1.60 scored and 3.20 conceded, while MP are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLWWL), averaging 2.00 scored and 2.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 9 passed 2.5 goals, and MP hold a 7.4-point power-rating edge (38.4 v 45.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 36.5% in the Ykkösliiga, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 43% BTTS chance and 35% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
36.5%
Model confidence
36.5%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 16 · avg 1.60/3.20
GF 10 · GA 12 · avg 2.00/2.40