Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
KPV-j · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
KäPa are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DLWLD), averaging 2.20 scored and 3.00 conceded, while KPV-j are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DLWWW), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and KäPa hold a 7.1-point power-rating edge (38.4 v 31.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 38.3% in the Ykkösliiga, while KPV-j holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 52% BTTS chance and 46% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
KPV-j
Probability
38.3%
Model confidence
38.3%
KPV-j has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 15 · avg 2.20/3.00
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80