YkkösliigaYkkösliiga
Sunday, 28 June 2026Last updated 10:01
KäPa

KäPa

Home
DL
31
Full time
JäPS

JäPS

Away
LW
Markku.fi Areena
GoalVio prediction
46% confidence
KäPa(40%)
Most likely exact score2-1
Prediction correct— Result: KäPa
Win probability
KäPa
40%
Draw
25%
JäPS
34%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
KäPa
54
JäPS
34
Defence
KäPa
14
JäPS
27
Momentum
KäPa
17
JäPS
50
Danger (xG)
KäPa
1.35
JäPS
0.90
Both teams to score
Yes
Over 2.5 goals
Yes
xG for (KäPa)
1.35
avg per match
xG for (JäPS)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (KäPa)
2.25
avg per match
xG against (JäPS)
1.80
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
KäPaKäPa
DLWDD
JäPSJäPS
LWLLW

Probability breakdown

46% confidence
KäPa40%
Draw25%
JäPS34%

KäPa leads with 40% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

KäPa head into this in Ykkösliiga fixture at Markku.fi Areena in mixed form (DL), while JäPS arrive in mixed form (LW). KäPa have a 0% win rate across their last 2 matches, compared to 50% for JäPS over 2 games.

The model rates KäPa's attack at 54/100 against a 27/100 JäPS defence, and JäPS's attack at 34/100 against a 14/100 KäPa backline — a balanced matchup with neither side holding a clear structural edge.

KäPa have won 1 of their last 4 home fixtures, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game at home. JäPS have won 1 of their last 3 away fixtures, averaging 1.7 goals scored and 2.7 conceded per away game.

KäPa have the upper hand in recent meetings, winning 1 of the last 1 encounters, averaging 4.0 goals per game, both teams scored in 1 of those fixtures.

The GoalVio engine projects KäPa to win with 46% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 2-1. Win probabilities: KäPa 4040%, Draw 2530%, JäPS 3430%. BTTS: Yes, Over 2.5: Yes.

Head to head

KäPa 1Draws 00 JäPS
Avg goals: 4.0BTTS in 1/1
28 Jun 2026
KäPa
W31
JäPS

Recent form

KäPa

KäPa

D
vs SJK Akatemia
17 Jul 2026
22
L
@ PK-35
10 Jul 2026
13
W
vs JäPS
28 Jun 2026
31
D
vs PK-35
17 May 2026
00
D
vs MyPa
13 May 2026
11
JäPS

JäPS

L
@ Kooteepee
10 Jul 2026
14
W
vs SJK Akatemia
3 Jul 2026
10
L
@ KäPa
28 Jun 2026
13
L
vs Kooteepee
16 May 2026
01
W
@ HIFK Helsinki
13 May 2026
31

Frequently asked questions

Who will win KäPa vs JäPS?

GoalVio's model predicts KäPa to win with 46% confidence.

What is the predicted score for KäPa vs JäPS?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-1.

Will both teams score in KäPa vs JäPS?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in KäPa vs JäPS?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more