Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
KäPa are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LDDLL), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.20 conceded, while JäPS are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLLWW), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and JäPS hold an 8.3-point power-rating edge (38.4 v 46.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 37.5% in the Ykkösliiga, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 42% BTTS chance and 33% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
37.5%
Model confidence
37.5%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00