Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
KäPa are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DDLDW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.40 conceded, while JäPS are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLLDW), averaging 1.80 scored and 2.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 9 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and JäPS hold an 8.3-point power-rating edge (38.4 v 46.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 37.5% in the Ykkösliiga, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 42% BTTS chance and 33% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
37.5%
Model confidence
37.5%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
GF 9 · GA 13 · avg 1.80/2.60