Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Haka · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (12%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
KäPa 3-2 Haka
Original prediction
Haka
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 15:38 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.36 | 16.9% | 18.1% | 1.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.32 | 21.0% | 22.0% | 1.0 pts |
| Away | 1.46 | 62.1% | 59.9% | -2.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–212%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.1–210%
Predicted outcome
Haka
Probability
59.9%
Model confidence
59.9%
Haka has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
KäPaWLDDL
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
HakaWDLLW
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
KäPaHaka
37.5Attack62.5
40.3Defence63.9
29.2Form61.1
38.5Power62.7
0.82xG2.22