Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gnistan · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-2
KäPa are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WDWLW), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Gnistan are 5W-0D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWW), averaging 2.60 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Gnistan hold a 26.4-point power-rating edge (41.9 v 68.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 64.0% in the Ykkönen, while Gnistan holds the strongest overall chance at 64% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 68% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Gnistan
Probability
64.0%
Model confidence
64.0%
Gnistan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20
GF 13 · GA 3 · avg 2.60/0.60