4. liga - Divizie E4. liga - Divizie E
Wednesday, 10 June 2026Last updated 12:31
Kozlovice

Kozlovice

Home
W
10
Full time
Břeclav

Břeclav

Away
L
GoalVio prediction
58% confidence
Kozlovice(58%)
Most likely exact score2-0
Prediction correct— Result: Kozlovice
Win probability
Kozlovice
58%
Draw
25%
Břeclav
17%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Kozlovice
34
Břeclav
9
Defence
Kozlovice
91
Břeclav
66
Momentum
Kozlovice
100
Břeclav
0
Danger (xG)
Kozlovice
0.90
Břeclav
0.00
Both teams to score
No

The model projects 2.83 xG for Kozlovice and 0.84 xG for Břeclav. Břeclav's projected xG of 0.84 is not sufficient to make scoring a reliable expectation — the model does not see them generating enough high-quality chances to break through.The projected 2-0 scoreline features a clean sheet for one side. The xG distribution suggests Kozlovice will score, but Břeclav's attacking output falls below the threshold the model requires to project both teams scoring.Kozlovice's Defensive Stability Score (91) comfortably exceeds the opposition's Attack Score (9). That structural defensive advantage is the clearest reason the model does not project both teams scoring.

Over 2.5 goals
No

The model projects a combined xG of 3.66 — high attacking volume. A combined xG below 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is unlikely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture falls below that threshold.The projected 2-0 scoreline stays under the 2.5-goal mark. The probability grid is dominated by scorelines of two goals or fewer, with the over 2.5 market requiring a result that sits outside the model's most likely outcomes.The defensive profiles of both sides are stronger than their attacking counterparts — Kozlovice's Defensive Stability (91) and Břeclav's (66) both suggest teams capable of limiting the opposition. When both defences are this organised, the model expects a lower-scoring environment.

xG for (Kozlovice)
0.90
avg per match
xG for (Břeclav)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Kozlovice)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Břeclav)
0.90
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
KozloviceKozlovice
W
BřeclavBřeclav
LD

Probability breakdown

58% confidence
Kozlovice58%
Draw25%
Břeclav17%

Kozlovice leads with 58% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Kozlovice Backed to Win — Model Projects 2-0

Kozlovice host Břeclav in 4. liga - Divizie E. Kozlovice have recorded WWWWWL in recent matches while Břeclav arrive with a run of LDWWLL.

Key factors

: 🎯 xG Advantage The Goalvio xG model projects 2.83 expected goals for Kozlovice against 0.84 for Břeclav — a significant advantage that translates into a higher win probability. xG is the model's most reliable predictor of match outcomes.
: 🔒 Defensive Stability Kozlovice have kept 4 clean sheet(s) in 10 recent matches — a defensive record that gives them a meaningful edge in this fixture. Defensive solidity is one of the strongest predictors of match outcomes at this level.
: 🏟️ Home Advantage Goalvio applies an 8% xG boost for home teams based on empirical data showing home sides score 10–15% more goals at their own ground. Kozlovice's Elo-adjusted home strength gives them a 61% expected score in this fixture — a factor that tips the balance when the underlying numbers are close.

Why GoalVio backs this

Kozlovice are generating a dominant xG advantage — 2.83 projected against 0.84 for Břeclav. xG measures the quality of chances created, not just shots. A gap of 1.99 is the clearest signal in the model that Kozlovice are the materially more dangerous side in this fixture.

Biggest risk: Kozlovice's projection depends on converting chances into goals. If Břeclav defend deep, absorb pressure, and hit on the counter, the match could end differently than the model projects — particularly if Kozlovice fail to score in the first half.

Risk factors

  • Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.
  • The Poisson model works on averages — individual moments of quality can decide matches that data suggests should be close.

Head to head

Kozlovice 1Draws 00 Břeclav
Avg goals: 1.0
10 Jun 2026
Kozlovice
W10
Břeclav

Recent form

Kozlovice

Kozlovice

W
vs Břeclav
10 Jun 2026
10
Břeclav

Břeclav

L
@ Kozlovice
10 Jun 2026
01
D
@ Strání
16 May 2026
00

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Kozlovice vs Břeclav?

GoalVio's model predicts Kozlovice to win with 58% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Kozlovice vs Břeclav?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-0.

Will both teams score in Kozlovice vs Břeclav?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Kozlovice vs Břeclav?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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