Kowloon Cityvs
Hong Kong FC
COMPLETEDHong-Kong · Senior Shield · 9/19/2026, 8:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kowloon City · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kowloon City 4-1 Hong Kong FC
Original prediction
Kowloon City
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.60 | 56.0% | 41.5% | -14.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.10 | 22.0% | 25.2% | 3.3 pts |
| Away | 4.09 | 22.0% | 33.3% | 11.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.60 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Kowloon City
Probability
41.5%
Model confidence
41.5%
Kowloon City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 12 · avg 1.00/2.40
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80