Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Erlbach · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Kottern are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (LDWWD), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Erlbach are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLLWD), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Erlbach hold a 28.3-point power-rating edge (30.3 v 58.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 53.0% in the Oberliga - Bayern Süd, while Erlbach holds the strongest overall chance at 53% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 54% BTTS chance and 53% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Erlbach
Probability
53.0%
Model confidence
53.0%
Erlbach has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00