Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Erlbach · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Kottern are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLLWD), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.20 conceded, while Erlbach are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (LDDWW), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Erlbach hold a 28.3-point power-rating edge (30.3 v 58.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 53.0% in the Oberliga - Bayern Süd, while Erlbach holds the strongest overall chance at 53% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 54% BTTS chance and 53% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Erlbach
Probability
53.0%
Model confidence
53.0%
Erlbach has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60