Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Austria · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kosovo 1-1 Austria
Original prediction
Austria
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 18:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.73 | 25.2% | 29.5% | 4.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.33 | 28.2% | 28.1% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.01 | 46.6% | 42.3% | -4.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.33 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Austria
Probability
42.3%
Model confidence
42.3%
Austria has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
KosovoDLWWL
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
AustriaDWWWW
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
KosovoAustria
22.2Attack88.9
66.7Defence55.6
44.4Form77.8
47.5Power75.3
1.07xG1.38