Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Charleroi · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kortrijk 1-3 Charleroi
Original prediction
Charleroi
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.66 | 25.5% | 25.4% | -0.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.49 | 26.8% | 25.8% | -1.0 pts |
| Away | 1.95 | 47.8% | 48.9% | 1.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.95 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–210%
Predicted outcome
Charleroi
Probability
48.9%
Model confidence
48.9%
Charleroi has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
KortrijkLDLLW
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
CharleroiWWWLW
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
KortrijkCharleroi
0.0Attack66.7
0.0Defence88.9
0.0Form100.0
10.0Power87.9
1.06xG1.98