Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Falu BS · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (11%), 0-3 (10%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Korsnäs 3-1 Falu BS
Original prediction
Falu BS
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 17 September 2026 at 00:43 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.10 | 22.0% | 11.8% | -10.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.08 | 22.1% | 15.4% | -6.7 pts |
| Away | 1.61 | 56.0% | 72.7% | 16.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
16.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–211%
- 2.0–310%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Falu BS
Probability
72.7%
Model confidence
72.7%
Falu BS has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
KorsnäsLLWLL
GF 7 · GA 17 · avg 1.40/3.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
Falu BSWLLLD
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
KorsnäsFalu BS
34.7Attack53.3
14.7Defence60.0
18.7Form58.7
26.0Power58.2
0.83xG2.81