Korona Kielcevs
Raków Częstochowa
COMPLETEDPoland · Ekstraklasa · 9/19/2026, 12:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Korona Kielce · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Korona Kielce 3-2 Raków Częstochowa
Original prediction
Korona Kielce
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.17 | 42.4% | 43.3% | 1.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.35 | 27.4% | 27.5% | 0.1 pts |
| Away | 3.03 | 30.2% | 29.1% | -1.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.17 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Korona Kielce
Probability
43.3%
Model confidence
43.3%
Korona Kielce has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
GF 7 · GA 12 · avg 1.40/2.40