Korona Kielce IIvs
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
COMPLETEDPoland · III Liga - Group 4 · 10/10/2026, 12:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Korona Kielce II · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Korona Kielce II 4-0 Podlasie Biała Podlaska
Original prediction
Korona Kielce II
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.23 | 40.5% | 43.6% | 3.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.50 | 25.8% | 24.6% | -1.2 pts |
| Away | 2.68 | 33.7% | 31.8% | -1.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.23 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Korona Kielce II
Probability
43.6%
Model confidence
43.6%
Korona Kielce II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60