Korea Republic U23vs
China PR U23
COMPLETEDWorld · Asian Games · 9/30/2026, 6:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Korea Republic U23 · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 1-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Korea Republic U23 2-1 China PR U23
Original prediction
Korea Republic U23
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 September 2026 at 12:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.21 | 75.3% | 61.3% | -14.1 pts |
| Draw | 5.30 | 17.2% | 22.1% | 4.9 pts |
| Away | 12.21 | 7.5% | 16.6% | 9.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.21 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–013%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.1–111%
Predicted outcome
Korea Republic U23
Probability
61.3%
Model confidence
61.3%
Korea Republic U23 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 4 · avg 2.60/0.80
GF 8 · GA 1 · avg 1.60/0.20