1. SNL1. SNL
Sunday, 26 July 2026Last updated 12:33
Koper

Koper

Home
W
22
Full time
Radomlje

Radomlje

Away
L
Bonifika
GoalVio prediction
49% confidence
Koper(49%)
Most likely exact score1-0
Win probability
Koper
49%
Draw
26%
Radomlje
26%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Koper
73
Radomlje
9
Defence
Koper
91
Radomlje
66
Momentum
Koper
100
Radomlje
0
Danger (xG)
Koper
1.80
Radomlje
0.00
Both teams to score
No

The model projects 2.59 xG for Koper and 0.96 xG for Radomlje. Radomlje's projected xG of 0.96 is not sufficient to make scoring a reliable expectation — the model does not see them generating enough high-quality chances to break through.The projected 2-0 scoreline features a clean sheet for one side. The xG distribution suggests Koper will score, but Radomlje's attacking output falls below the threshold the model requires to project both teams scoring.Koper's Defensive Stability Score (91) comfortably exceeds the opposition's Attack Score (9). That structural defensive advantage is the clearest reason the model does not project both teams scoring.

Over 2.5 goals
No

The model projects a combined xG of 3.55 — high attacking volume. A combined xG below 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is unlikely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture falls below that threshold.The projected 2-0 scoreline stays under the 2.5-goal mark. The probability grid is dominated by scorelines of two goals or fewer, with the over 2.5 market requiring a result that sits outside the model's most likely outcomes.The defensive profiles of both sides are stronger than their attacking counterparts — Koper's Defensive Stability (91) and Radomlje's (66) both suggest teams capable of limiting the opposition. When both defences are this organised, the model expects a lower-scoring environment.

xG for (Koper)
1.80
avg per match
xG for (Radomlje)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Koper)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Radomlje)
0.90
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
KoperKoper
WW
RadomljeRadomlje
L

Probability breakdown

49% confidence
Koper49%
Draw26%
Radomlje26%

Koper leads with 49% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Koper Backed to Win — Model Projects 1-0

Koper host Radomlje in 1. SNL. Koper have recorded LLWWWD in recent matches while Radomlje arrive with a run of WLLLLD. These sides have met 10 times recently, averaging 2.7 goals per game.

Key factors

: 🎯 xG Advantage The Goalvio xG model projects 2.59 expected goals for Koper against 0.96 for Radomlje — a significant advantage that translates into a higher win probability. xG is the model's most reliable predictor of match outcomes.
: 🔒 Defensive Stability Koper have kept 4 clean sheet(s) in 10 recent matches — a defensive record that gives them a meaningful edge in this fixture. Defensive solidity is one of the strongest predictors of match outcomes at this level.
: 🏟️ Home Advantage Goalvio applies an 8% xG boost for home teams based on empirical data showing home sides score 10–15% more goals at their own ground. Koper's Elo-adjusted home strength gives them a 62% expected score in this fixture — a factor that tips the balance when the underlying numbers are close.

Why GoalVio backs this

Koper are generating a dominant xG advantage — 2.59 projected against 0.96 for Radomlje. xG measures the quality of chances created, not just shots. A gap of 1.63 is the clearest signal in the model that Koper are the materially more dangerous side in this fixture.

Biggest risk: Koper's projection depends on converting chances into goals. If Radomlje defend deep, absorb pressure, and hit on the counter, the match could end differently than the model projects — particularly if Koper fail to score in the first half.

Risk factors

  • These sides have drawn 4 of their last 10 meetings — history suggests a tight, unpredictable contest.
  • Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.
  • The Poisson model works on averages — individual moments of quality can decide matches that data suggests should be close.

Recent form

Koper

Koper

W
@ Nafta
17 Jul 2026
20
W
@ Celje
16 May 2026
21
Radomlje

Radomlje

L
@ Olimpija Ljubljana
17 May 2026
01

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Koper vs Radomlje?

GoalVio's model predicts Koper to win with 49% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Koper vs Radomlje?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in Koper vs Radomlje?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Koper vs Radomlje?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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