Kochi Unitedvs
V-varen Nagasaki
COMPLETEDJapan · J-League Cup · 9/9/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
V-varen Nagasaki · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kochi United 0-1 V-varen Nagasaki
Original prediction
V-varen Nagasaki
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.07 | 17.9% | 27.7% | 9.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.92 | 23.1% | 26.7% | 3.6 pts |
| Away | 1.53 | 59.0% | 45.6% | -13.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.53 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
V-varen Nagasaki
Probability
45.6%
Model confidence
45.6%
V-varen Nagasaki has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 15 · avg 0.40/3.00
GF 8 · GA 14 · avg 1.60/2.80