Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Merelbeke · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Knokke 0-3 Merelbeke
Original prediction
Merelbeke
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 October 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.91 | 46.4% | 35.8% | -10.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.50 | 25.3% | 25.7% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 3.14 | 28.3% | 38.5% | 10.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.14 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Merelbeke
Probability
38.5%
Model confidence
38.5%
Merelbeke has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
KnokkeLWDLW
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
MerelbekeLDDLW
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
KnokkeMerelbeke
46.7Attack66.7
60.0Defence66.7
46.7Form66.7
51.9Power67.2
1.27xG1.54