Kluczevia Stargardvs
Pogoń Siedlce
COMPLETEDPoland · Cup · 9/1/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pogoń Siedlce · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kluczevia Stargard 2-3 Pogoń Siedlce
Original prediction
Pogoń Siedlce
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.35 | 26.9% | 31.1% | 4.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.31 | 27.3% | 27.4% | 0.1 pts |
| Away | 1.97 | 45.9% | 41.5% | -4.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.97 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Pogoń Siedlce
Probability
41.5%
Model confidence
41.5%
Pogoń Siedlce has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 7 · avg 2.80/1.40
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60