Kitcheevs
Hong Kong FC
COMPLETEDHong-Kong · Premier League · 10/10/2026, 8:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kitchee · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (9%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kitchee 4-0 Hong Kong FC
Original prediction
Kitchee
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 19:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.11 | 82.2% | 65.1% | -17.0 pts |
| Draw | 8.08 | 11.2% | 18.5% | 7.3 pts |
| Away | 13.83 | 6.6% | 16.4% | 9.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.11 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-17.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.3–19%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Kitchee
Probability
65.1%
Model confidence
65.1%
Kitchee has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
GF 7 · GA 13 · avg 1.40/2.60