Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kitara · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (13%), 2-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kitara 1-2 Al Ahly
Original prediction
Kitara
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:33 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.47 | 13.8% | 36.5% | 22.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.60 | 24.8% | 27.7% | 2.9 pts |
| Away | 1.45 | 61.4% | 35.8% | -25.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
22.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.2–011%
Predicted outcome
Kitara
Probability
36.5%
Model confidence
36.5%
Kitara has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
KitaraWWDWW
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Al AhlyWWWDW
GF 11 · GA 1 · avg 2.20/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
KitaraAl Ahly
66.7Attack50.0
83.3Defence50.0
100.0Form50.0
86.5Power50.0
1.54xG0.86