Kitakyushuvs
Parceiro Nagano
COMPLETEDJapan · J3 League · 10/25/2026, 5:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Parceiro Nagano · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kitakyushu 3-1 Parceiro Nagano
Original prediction
Parceiro Nagano
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.11 | 42.3% | 35.3% | -7.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.32 | 26.9% | 26.0% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.91 | 30.8% | 38.7% | 7.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Parceiro Nagano
Probability
38.7%
Model confidence
38.7%
Parceiro Nagano has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60