Kitakyushuvs
Osaka
COMPLETEDJapan · J3 League · 10/17/2026, 5:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Osaka · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (13%), 0-1 (12%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kitakyushu 3-1 Osaka
Original prediction
Osaka
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.15 | 28.2% | 15.7% | -12.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.37 | 26.4% | 20.1% | -6.3 pts |
| Away | 1.95 | 45.5% | 64.3% | 18.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
18.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–213%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Osaka
Probability
64.3%
Model confidence
64.3%
Osaka has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
KitakyushuLWLDW
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
OsakaDLLWW
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
KitakyushuOsaka
40.0Attack60.0
40.0Defence70.0
33.3Form56.7
40.3Power62.1
0.72xG2.10